XRP Nears Breakout Point as Bearish Trend Meets Rising ETF Demand Altcoin News ETHNews
- Advertisement -XRP trades near $1. 07-$1. 08, down 5. 31% over the past week and confined to a narrowing range. Active wallets and new wallet creation have dropped to some of the lowest levels recorded in. . .
- Advertisement -XRP trades near $1. 07-$1. 08, down 5. 31% over the past week and confined to a narrowing range. Active wallets and new wallet creation have dropped to some of the lowest levels recorded in 2026. Spot XRP ETFs pulled in $107,380 on July 10, lifting cumulative net inflows to $1. 48 billion. The four-hour chart shows a descending triangle nearing its apex, with every major moving average pointing lower for monthsXRP sits at $1. 07, barely moved on the hour but down 1. 28% over 24 hours and 5. 31% over the past week, according to exchange data. The token has spent the past several sessions compressing into a tighter and tighter band beneath $1. 10, and two things happening underneath that price are worth separating from each other: retail participation on the XRP Ledger has gone unusually quiet, while institutional money through spot ETFs keeps showing up almost every day. Wallets Go Quiet While ETFs Keep BuyingAccording to Santiment data, active wallets on the XRP Ledger fell to 25,350 on a recent trading day, the second-lowest reading of the year. New wallet creation dropped even further, to 2,130, a level not seen since November 2024. The decline didn’t happen overnight; activity had been trending lower for several weeks even as XRP briefly rallied toward $1. 18 in early July, and Santiment’s own data shows that bounce drew mostly existing holders trading among themselves rather than new wallets joining the network. The pattern isn’t unique to XRP either – Ethereum’s active addresses have dropped roughly 46% from their February peak, and broader whale activity across crypto has cooled at the same time, pointing to a market-wide pause rather than a problem specific to Ripple’s token. Santiment has flagged wider RLUSD adoption, tokenized assets on the ledger, and new institutional payment tools as the kind of catalysts that could pull activity back up, though none of them have shown up in the data yet. Spot ETF holders are behaving differently. SosoValue data showsXRP ETFs took in $107,380 on July 10 alone, pushing cumulative net inflows to $1. 48 billion since launch. Total net assets held across these funds now stand at $996. 65 million, equal to 1. 45% of XRP’s circulating market cap. Daily trading volume through the ETFs came in at $10. 91 million that same day – modest next to the cumulative total, but consistent with a fund category that’s been adding rather than shedding assets on most trading days in recent weeks. DateDaily Net InflowCumulative Net InflowTotal Net AssetsJul 10, 2026$107. 38K$1. 48B$996. 65MJul 9, 2026$0. 00$1. 48B$989. 46MJul 8, 2026-$7. 29M$1. 48B$983. 40MJul 2, 2026$6. 55M$1. 49B$987. 91MJun 29, 2026$15. 34M$1. 48B$971. 63MJun 26, 2026$15. 63M$1. 47B$934. 26MA Descending Triangle Is Closing In on Its ApexLooking at the four-hour chart, the technical picture shows a series of lower highs since the July 4-5 spike to $1. 1843, while price keeps landing on almost the same floor – somewhere between $1. 0730 and $1. 0800. A support line that holds steady while each rally fails a little lower than the last one is what chartists call a descending triangle, and these patterns lean bearish more often than not when they form during a downtrend, though the outcome isn’t guaranteed until price actually breaks one side. Analysis and chart by Alexander Stefanov | Source: TradingViewThe moving averages confirm the same downtrend. Price is currently trading below its 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period averages on the four-hour chart, which lines up with the broader pullback that’s been running since the early-July peak – a sign that recent price action has cooled off relative to both the short and longer-term trend. Every Major Average Points Down, and RSI Isn’t Screaming Oversold YetThis part doesn’t take a finance degree to follow. A moving average is just the average closing price over a set number of candles, and right now XRP’s 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages are all stacked in descending order, with the shortest-term line sitting lowest. That configuration means recent prices have consistently run cooler than the medium and longer-term trend, not just dipped temporarily – a structure that’s been in place for months rather than something that just triggered. The gap is even wider on the daily timeframe, where the 50-day average sits at $1. 2297 against a 200-day average of $1. 4477 – a spread that’s persisted for months rather than something newly forming. RSI works on a 0-100 scale and measures how forceful recent buying or selling has been. XRP’s RSI reads 39. 32, with its own moving average at 45. 46 – both under the 50 midpoint that separates buying pressure from selling pressure, but still well above the 30 level that usually marks oversold conditions. In plain terms: sellers have had the upper hand lately, but not to the point where a bounce becomes statistically likely just from exhaustion alone. Why Volume Around the Support Line Matters More Than the BounceThe July 4-5 rally to $1. 1843 came with a clearly taller volume bar than the candles around it, which is usually a sign that real buying interest, not just thin order books, drove the move. That’s part of why chartists treat that high as a meaningful pivot rather than a wick to ignore. Since then, volume has faded. The bars clustered around June 23-27 and July 4-5 dwarf what’s showed up in the July 9-13 window, and that kind of drop-off is normal while a triangle is forming – traders sit on their hands until something forces a decision. Right at the current support retest near $1. 0730-$1. 0800, volume on both the drop into support and the small bounce off it has stayed unremarkable. That cuts both ways: no heavy selling into support argues against a panic breakdown, but no strong buying on the bounce means the move back toward $1. 08-$1. 09 doesn’t yet carry much conviction behind it. The Triangle Has Two Exits, and XRP Is Sitting Right at the ForkA confirmed close under the $1. 0730-$1. 0800 shelf would complete the triangle in the direction most technicians would expect, with the pattern’s height typically used to project a downside target from the breakdown point. A close back above the descending trendline, which currently intersects somewhere in the $1. 09-$1. 10 zone, would undercut that bearish case and open the door back toward the $1. 14 area where the last lower high formed. With price sitting almost exactly at that intersection now, the next handful of candles matter more than usual. Whichever direction eventually wins should show up first in volume – a breakout on a clearly larger-than-average bar would carry far more weight than a quiet drift through either line, and a quiet break in this kind of setup has a higher tendency to get reclaimed rather than run. Disclaimer: ETHNewsdoes not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to cryptocurrencies. 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