July CPI Puts Bitcoin and Markets on a Fed Knife Edge
Oil is the wildcard, and July CPI is about to decide whether the market gets some relief or another headache. Crude jumped Tuesday as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz stalled, pushing the 10-year. . .
Oil is the wildcard, and July CPI is about to decide whether the market gets some relief or another headache. Crude jumped Tuesday as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz stalled, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4. 682% before falling below $85-$88 resistance area on reports of progress in Oman-Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $64,300. July CPI Could Split Markets Down The MiddleThe timing is awkward. The July US jobs report showed the economy shed 23,000 jobs, while pessimism remains elevated. Now investors get the July CPI report with September Federal Reserve expectations almost perfectly divided. CME FedWatchdataputs the odds of the Fed holding rates in September at 52. 1% against 47. 9% for a hike. That’s about as close to a coin flip as markets get. Soft Inflation Could Give Risk Assets ReliefWall Street’s base case isn’t particularly alarming. A Wall Street Journalsurveyof 15 banks expects July headline inflation to rise 0. 12% to 3. 4%. Core CPI excluding food and energy is expected at 0. 22%. HSBC is alsoexpectinganother soft print after June’s headline price fell 0. 42%. If that view holds, the bank expects Treasury yields to decline and rate hike bets to fade, potentially giving risk assets a friendlier backdrop. A Hot Print Could Quickly Change The SetupThe other side is far less comfortable. A hotter-than-expected July CPI reading could strengthen the case for another Fed hike and put renewed pressure on stocks, bonds and crypto. For Bitcoin, the immediate question is whether inflation provides the catalyst for relief or another reason to sell. With oil still reacting to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and September rate expectations virtually split,Wednesday’sJuly CPI could leave markets with very little room for error. Story Ends HereTrust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors. Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices. Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners. Read the Next NewsBack to top button