Is Bitcoin Really Headed to $38,000? NYDIG's October Scenario, Explained
Bitcoin could sink to a cycle low of $38,000 to $39,000 by October if the current drawdown matches the depth of 2022’s bear market, NYDIG said in its second-quarter review. Key TakeawaysNYDIG sees a potential. . .
Bitcoin could sink to a cycle low of $38,000 to $39,000 by October if the current drawdown matches the depth of 2022’s bear market, NYDIG said in its second-quarter review. Key TakeawaysNYDIG sees a potential bitcoin cycle low near $38,000-$39,000 by October if a 2022-style drawdown repeats. Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,500, down about 30% in 2026 and roughly 50% below October 2025’s $126,080 peak. K33 researchers believe the $60,000 area already marked this bear market’s maximum drawdown. A Bleak ScenarioBitcoinfinancial services firm NYDIG has mapped out a scenario in whichbitcoin’s slide extends to $38,000-$39,000 by October, if the 2025-2026 downturn follows the depth and duration of the market’s previous major resets. The scenario appeared in the firm’s second-quarter review, “LeverageNot Spot Demand Is DrivingBitcoinWhile Value and Momentum Buyers Wait,” which waspublished last week. The firm was explicit about why the old playbook is back on traders’ screens, noting:“Bitcoin’s 2025-2026 drawdown is bringing the 4-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018 and 2022 even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly. ”Bitcointraded near $64,500 at the time of the report, down almost 30% since the start of the year and roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Earlier this month the market carved out a 21-month low whenbitcoincrashed to $58,035, briefly wiping about $40 billion from the widercryptoeconomy in a single day. The Four-Year MathBitcoin’s four-year cycle refers to the market’s historical rhythm of a peak, a year-long contraction, and a recovery, loosely anchored to the network’s halving schedule. Thebear marketsof 2014, 2018 and 2022 produced peak-to-trough declines in the range of 75% to 85%. Applying a 2022-style decline of roughly 70% to the October 2025 peak of $126,080 lands almost exactly on NYDIG’s $38,000-$39,000 corridor, with the timing pointing to a potential floor by October 2026, four years after the last cycle’s bottom. NYDIG stopped well short of calling the figure a forecast, noting that 2025 wasbitcoin’s leastvolatileyear on record, which could compress the drawdown and produce a shallower landing than previous cycles. In an earlier note, the firm also observed that the classic capitulation markers have not yet appeared, writing that the market has seen “no long-term-holder capitulation, no terminal insolvencies, and no reset. ”Wall Street’s Range of AnswersThe $38,000 scenario is the mostbearishof the major desk calls, givenK33 Research has arguedthe opposite, i. e. the dip near $60,000 already represented thisbear market’s maximum drawdown, with consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000 ahead. Standard Chartered has similarly suggested the bottom formed around the $59,000 level, while Galaxy Digital has floated a decline toward $40,000. Separately, Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju has warned thebear marketcould stretch intoearly 2027, while Grayscale seestwo pathsout of the downturn hinging on macro catalysts in the coming months. With more than half of allBTCsitting at anunrealized loss(a condition that has accompanied every prior cycle floor), analysts agree the market is late in the contraction but are split on how much pain remains. NYDIG’s own narrative leaves the question open, with the firm characterizing the market as leverage-driven rather than demand-driven (where value and momentum buyers are waiting on the sidelines). Fueled by positive economic data, bitcoin added to its July 14 gains on Wednesday to breach $65,000, hitting an intraday…Bitcoin Tops $65,500 as $209 Million in Crypto Shorts Collapse Across MarketsFueled by positive economic data, bitcoin added to its July 14 gains on Wednesday to breach $65,000, hitting an intraday…Fueled by positive economic data, bitcoin added to its July 14 gains on Wednesday to breach $65,000, hitting an intraday…