HODLers accumulate, but weak new demand keeps Bitcoin trapped below $66k - AMBCrypto
The Bitcoin [BTC] short-term holder spent output profit ratio [STH SOPR] is at 1. In other words, coins held for under 155 days were, on average, at their cost basis. The taker buy/sell ratio showed a slight. . .
The Bitcoin [BTC] short-term holder spent output profit ratio [STH SOPR] is at 1. In other words, coins held for under 155 days were, on average, at their cost basis. The taker buy/sell ratio showed a slight skew towards aggressive sellers, too. Source: CryptoQuantThe stablecoin supply ratio measures Bitcoin’s market cap to the aggregate market cap of all stablecoins. This reading was at11. 58, showing stablecoin supply was relatively low and that buying power was still limited. With these factors in mind, we can examine the sideways price action of the past two months. Bitcoinhas oscillated between$60k and $66ksince June, for the most part. Demand for Bitcoin is not yet able to generate bullish momentumAMBCrypto reported that the daily miner revenue from block rewards has droppedbelow $30 millionby mid-July. Contracting revenues have put miners in a tight spot. The Bitcoin supply with long-term holders was at record highs. This signaled strong HODLer conviction. Even so, fear lingered in the market. Source: Axel Adler Jr. The apparent demand-to-issuance metric compares the30-daychange in the volume of coins less than a year old with new BTC issuance. Readings above 1 indicate young coins are growing, while a reading below 0 shows this volume is shrinking compared to issuance. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. used this metric to demonstrate that the current price rebound is not accompanied by growth in the volume of young coins. The metric was at-5. 43and has been negative for five months now. It made a low near-16inJuly, so it has recovered a little. Overall, despite price hovering around$64k, apparent demand was too weak to confirm price recovery. Source: Axel Adler Jr. The metric above tracks the movement of Bitcoin between cohorts over30 days old. A positive reading means more coins returned to young supply than moved into the over-one-year category. The net age flow has been negative for seven months, and the current flow of-85. 5kBTC means85. 5kBitcoin has moved from young coins into the over-one-year category. This pattern indicates accumulation and reduced supply available for sale. Taken together, the two metrics point to a market where existing holders continue accumulating, but new buyers have yet to arrive in sufficient numbers. That combination helps explain why Bitcoin has remained range-bound despite improving long-term holder conviction. If the Bitcoin net age flow turns positive, it would signal a short-term turnaround. A reading of above 1 in the demand-to-issuance metric would confirm renewed demand and bullish vigor. Final SummaryThe Bitcoin market is forming a bottom, but confirmation of a bullish trend shift was not yet at hand. A reading of above 1 in the demand-to-issuance metric, combined with a positive shift in net age flow, would confirm a bullish regime shift for Bitcoin.