History Says That Bitcoin Is an Unbelievable Bargain Right Now | The Motley Fool
On the surface,Bitcoin(BTC-0. 76%)might look like the type of digital asset you wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. After all, it's now down 50% from its all-time high last October, and trades for just. . .
On the surface,Bitcoin(BTC-0. 76%)might look like the type of digital asset you wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. After all, it's now down 50% from its all-time high last October, and trades for just $64,000. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham recently warned that Bitcoin will now "dwindle away" with a whimper. But, if history is any guide, Bitcoin could be a great bargain right now. Here's why. Bitcoin's four-year cycleThe first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that it typically trades infour-year cycles of boom and bust. So the current downturn in the price of Bitcoin is nothing new. Crypto investors have seen this story before: Bitcoin has three fantastic years, and then crashes in value. A new cycle then begins. Perhaps this is just a historical coincidence, and can be safely ignored. But Bitcoin does undergo a much-ballyhooedhalving eventevery four years, and this is generally cited as the reason the four-year cycle persists. Today's Change(-0. 76%) $-479. 96Current Price$62,525. 00Just think back to the last Bitcoin bear market. After hitting a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin crashed in value by 64% in 2022. However, it recovered quickly. In 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin posted triple-digit returns. And, in the first 10 months of 2025, Bitcoin cruised to a new all-time high of $126,000. So, in hindsight, Bitcoin was arguably "due" for a correction. Remember: three good years, then one bad year. If history repeats itself, this one bad year should eventually lead to a recovery. That means, after 10 months of atrocious performance, Bitcoin may already be in recovery mode. And, in fact, several high-profile crypto investors -- includingCathie Wood of Ark Investand Brian Armstrong ofCoinbase Global(COIN-10. 59%)-- have alreadycalled a bottom for Bitcoin. Image source: Getty Images. Bear markets keep getting shallowerBut wait, it gets better. That's because every Bitcoin bear market appears to be getting shallower over time. On July 28,Bitcoin Magazineposted a stunning graphic on social media showing that, from peak to trough, the drawdowns are getting shallower over time. In 2011, for example, the drawdown was 94%. In 2013, the drawdown was 86%. In 2017, the drawdown was 84%. In 2022, the drawdown was 78%. Thus far in 2026, the drawdown has been 54%. It's up to you to decide whether Bitcoin is in recovery mode. But the historical evidence should convince most skeptics that Bitcoin will resume its long-term march higher at some point. For much of its existence, Bitcoin has been one of the top-performing assets in the world. Thus, buying this asset at an extraordinary 50% discount could be a unique buying opportunity. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, I'm convinced that Bitcoin is an unbelievable bargain right now.