BITCOIN: Why experts are watching $50K as a buying zone for INDEX:BTCUSD by Swissquote
Bitcoin's cyclical bear market has now lasted for 288 days. Based on previous four-year cycles, which have averaged around 365 days, nearly 80% of the journey may already be behind us. Several independent indicators are now converging on the same area: $50,000. But does that mean investors should wait for that level before re-entering the market? First of all, it is important to remember one essential principle: no one can know in advance the exact price or precise date of a bear market …
Bitcoin's cyclical bear market has now lasted for 288 days. Based on previous four-year cycles, which have averaged around 365 days, nearly 80% of the journey may already be behind us. Several independent indicators are now converging on the same area: $50,000. But does that mean investors should wait for that level before re-entering the market?First of all, it is important to remember one essential principle: no one can know in advance the exact price or precise date of a bear market bottom. This is precisely why many investors favor a gradual approach through Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), steadily adding to their positions over the coming months rather than trying to buy the perfect bottom. Bitcoin recorded an initial low at $57,500 on July 1. For some analysts, this correction may already be over. Others, however, believe that one final phase of weakness remains possible, with a decline toward the $50,000–$60,000 range before the next bull market truly begins. Why does the $50,000 level appear so frequently in market analysis? Because four indicators based on completely different methodologies are currently pointing to the same price zone. The four main indicators are:• Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Price• Bitcoin CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed)• BTC Sharpe Ratio• The monthly Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo)The Long-Term Holder Realized Price represents the average acquisition cost of bitcoins held by long-term investors. Historically, during major bear markets, Bitcoin has frequently returned to this level before a new bull cycle began. Today, this metric is also trading close to $50,000, making it a closely watched support level among on-chain analysts. The CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) is another important benchmark. This indicator uses blockchain data to estimate Bitcoin's fundamental value by weighting transactions according to the age of the coins being spent. For more than a decade, it has proven highly effective at identifying bear market bottoms. Its current reading also points to a level close to $50,000. The third indicator is the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio, which measures the asset's risk-adjusted performance. Previous market cycles show that when this indicator remains below -1. 50, the market is generally in an advanced stage of capitulation. At present, it stands around -1. 38, suggesting that one final wave of weakness cannot be ruled out before the ultimate market bottom is established. Finally, technical analysis provides a fourth argument through the monthly Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo). During previous cycles, Bitcoin has often returned to test the cloud—or even briefly moved inside it—before beginning a sustained recovery. Today, the upper boundary of the monthly cloud is also located near $50,000, reinforcing the technical significance of this price zone. Ultimately, the $50,000 level should not be viewed as a certainty, but rather as an area where several independent analytical approaches reach a similar conclusion. This convergence naturally deserves investors' attention. Nevertheless, no indicator—regardless of its historical effectiveness—can precisely identify the absolute bottom of a market. That is why, for many investors, a gradual investment strategy remains the most prudent way to navigate the final stages of this bear market. DISCLAIMER:This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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