Bitcoin: BlackRock Buys, Is $79K Back in Play?
In short:BlackRock reaccumulated $250 million in Bitcoin over 24 hours, but Simon says it is not enough to absorb current selling pressure. From a technical view, he sees high probability of a move toward. . .
In short:BlackRock reaccumulated $250 million in Bitcoin over 24 hours, but Simon says it is not enough to absorb current selling pressure. From a technical view, he sees high probability of a move toward $79,000 as the secondary wave of an ending diagonal, before a deeper leg. Did BlackRock buying $250 million in Bitcoin change Simon’s outlook?No. BlackRock reaccumulated$250 millionin Bitcoin over 24 hours after two weeks of selling. Simon says that buying is real, but not substantial. He does not think it absorbs the current selling pressure. So one large buyer does not confirm a macro bottom by itself. Simon reads BlackRock as strong analysts, not precise traders. They do not time exact bottoms. Their recent reaccumulation may reflect Bitcoin sitting at an important local low and support zone. What has to happen before Simon calls a real macro bottom?Two things, Simon says. First, institutions that manage risk poorly must sell at a loss. That pushes net unrealized profit and loss below zero. Second, spot buyers, the smart money, must absorb that selling pressure. This mirrors how macro bottoms formed since 2011. Simon watchesspot versus derivative positioningclosely. He cares only about spot volume, because smart money handles billions and does not need leverage. So far he sees small upticks in absorption, but nothing like the 2022 bottom. Why does Simon think $79,000 is back in play?Simon expects a move toward$79,000as the secondary wave of an ending diagonal. He believes the first zigzag is already done. From a price-action view, he rates this path a high probability before the next larger wave down. Bitcoin is sitting at important support now. He ties the setup to the daily chart. The moving-average trend line sits at$62,000, and he doubts the daily has power to defend it yet. So a dip lower stays possible first. Strong support sits at$60,000, backed by Fibonacci 618 and 786 levels, heavy VPVR volume, and past price action. Simon says going below $59,000 gets hard for the bears. He frames that zone as a possible long with clearrisk and reward. What is Simon’s bigger plan and downside target?Simon plans to reaccumulate aggressively near the$55,000 to $44,000zone, which he calls the exchange-of-hands area. His downside target for the bottom is around$44,000. From there, his next upside target is$169,000, a move he estimates near 300% on average. Simon says he already distributed with VIPs around$109,000and$121,000. He stresses this is a plan, not a promise. He will only buy heavily if his checklist gives enough confirmations and confluences. He also sees a fundamental fit. In uncertain times, people hold reserves and avoid risk. As stability returns, he expects some money to flow back into crypto. For more context, see theBitcoin analysis hub. Frequently asked questionsHow much Bitcoin did BlackRock buy?Simon says BlackRock reaccumulated about $250 million worth of Bitcoin in the past 24 hours, after roughly two weeks of non-stop selling. He treats the buying as real but not substantial. In his view, it does not prove a macro bottom or fully absorb the current selling pressure. Where is Bitcoin’s key support according to Simon?Simon points to $60,000 as strong support, backed by Fibonacci 618 and 786 levels, heavy VPVR volume, and past price action. He says the daily moving-average line sits at $62,000. Going below $59,000 should be hard for the bears, though a wick lower stays possible. What is Simon’s downside target and next upside target?Simon expects the bottom to form around $44,000, inside a $55,000 to $44,000 exchange-of-hands zone. That is where he plans to reaccumulate aggressively if his checklist confirms. His next upside target after that is $169,000, a position trade he estimates could average near 300%. Is Simon buying Bitcoin right now?Not automatically. Simon says his plan is to reaccumulate aggressively in this area, but a plan is not a promise. He will run his checklist first and only buy heavily if he gets enough confirmations and confluences of a reversal. He stresses staying in the present moment. When is the next Bitcoin update?Simon recorded this on a Thursday as the second video of the week. He says he will be back on Saturday to review Bitcoin’s price action again. He also keeps viewers updated across these videos on the net unrealized profit and loss and spot absorption signals. MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on theBitcoin video analysis hub. Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.