Bitcoin: A Fibonacci Retracement From the March 2023 Low for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by KazimKarabacak
I drew a Fibonacci retracement from the March 2023 low to the cycle high. I set both the Fibonacci retracement and the chart scale to log, because bitcoin moved more than six times over this stretch. I did not pick the March 2023 low for technical reasons. Bitcoin made that low on the day the FDIC closed Silicon Valley Bank, and Silvergate had announced its wind down two days before. Bitcoin fell about 11 percent in the two days into that low, then rose about 30 percent in the week after it, …
I drew a Fibonacci retracement from the March 2023 low to the cycle high. I set both the Fibonacci retracement and the chart scale to log, because bitcoin moved more than six times over this stretch. I did not pick the March 2023 low for technical reasons. Bitcoin made that low on the day the FDIC closed Silicon Valley Bank, and Silvergate had announced its wind down two days before. Bitcoin fell about 11 percent in the two days into that low, then rose about 30 percent in the week after it, and has not traded at that low since. Bitcoin has come about a third of the way back down from the cycle high toward the March 2023 low. So the 0. 382 line is the level I watch, because bitcoin is sitting on it now. Holding the 0. 382 line keeps the giveback where it is and leaves the pullback a normal one. Reclaiming the 0. 236 line above, around 81,000, would take bitcoin back up to about a quarter of the distance, and at that point the pullback is being unwound rather than deepened. Losing the 0. 382 line would not end the pullback by itself, it would open the 0. 5 line, around 49,000, which is the halfway mark, and then the 0. 618 line, around 39,300. The 0. 618 line is the golden ratio level, and losing the 0. 618 line is a different kind of event from losing the lines above it. Losing the 0. 382 line or the 0. 5 line only makes the pullback deeper. Losing the 0. 618 line means most of the advance is gone, and at that point calling it a pullback stops making sense. Kazim Karabacakcontact@kazimkarabacak. comTrend AnalysisRelated publicationsDisclaimerThe information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in theTerms of Use. Trend AnalysisKazim Karabacakcontact@kazimkarabacak. comRelated publicationsDisclaimerThe information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in theTerms of Use.