Bitcoin $62,500 Support Tested a Third Time
In short: Simon says Bitcoin is testing its $62,500 medium-timeframe support for a third time, and he puts roughly 70/30 odds on it holding. He stays bullish on the daily and medium frames while bearish on. . .
In short:Simon says Bitcoin is testing its $62,500 medium-timeframe support for a third time, and he puts roughly 70/30 odds on it holding. He stays bullish on the daily and medium frames while bearish on the weekly. He wants a reclaim of $63,500 before targeting $69,000, then watches for a short. Will Bitcoin’s $62,500 support hold?Track it live:ourCrypto Fear and Greed Indexupdates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself. Simon puts the odds at roughly70/30 in favour of the $62,500 support holding. He calls this a very smart zone to reaccumulate. On the 4-hour frame the structure stays bullish until price breaks and fails to reclaim that level. He also notes a market-maker angle from his prior Thursday video. Price did wickbelow the support zone, grabbed some liquidations, and may now push back up. That trap keeps hisread on levels and risktilted bullish for now. Simon is clear this is a probability, not certainty. A break below $62,500 would flip his medium-frame view. Until then, the ParadiseTeam treats the level as strong. What confirms the possible reversal?Simon stacks several signals to reach his 70% number. The retest printed abullish hammer candlestickwith volume above the moving-average trendline, showing bulls stepped in aggressively. He compares it to a similar hammer from July that led to a push higher. He lists the supporting reads:Momentum divergence: price made lower lows while momentum made higher lowsMACD: a bullish cross of the blue line above the redRSI: near oversold 30 with an exaggerated bullish divergence and a cross above its trendlineStochastic RSI: both flags pointing up at supportSimon still wants areclaim and retestbefore acting. He reads the ParadiseTeam approach across theBitcoin analysis videosfor continuation confirmation. Where does Simon want to buy or short Bitcoin?Simon would only long once price canreclaim $63,500, the previous support now acting as resistance. That level confluences with the moving-average resistance near $63,300 and the 1-hour immediate resistance at $63,470. A reclaim would raise the odds this is the third wave of a higher-degree fifth, pointing toward$69,000. There he expects a shorting opportunity as the higher-degree first wave completes, with targets back toward the$61,000 to $59,000zone. If support instead breaks, Simon waits patiently for his buying zone at$61,000 to $59,000to catch the higher-degree third wave. On the weekly he still eyes $79,000 as a strong resistance and later selling level. What do funding and sentiment show?Simon says funding rates arestill positive, meaning longs remain crowded and a long-squeeze risk lingers. The funding history reached close to the plus 10% level and is now declining after a small squeeze. He tracks this on thecrypto funding rates board. On sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index sits at40, which he argues acts like 20 during thin summer liquidity, so participants are getting scared. On the 4-hour frame it already dipped near 20. Open interest matters most now. Simon and the ParadiseTeam watch for it to decline toward the moving average, signalling trapped longs are exiting and clearing the path higher. What is Simon’s macro outlook for Bitcoin?On the weekly frame Simon isstill bearish. He sees a final fifth wave completing as an ending diagonal, with a corrective C wave that may lift price before the macro reversal. He watches net unrealized profit and loss for capitulation. Like every macro bottom since 2011, he expects institutions holding at a loss to finally realise them, letting smart money absorb the selling. He maps theexchange-of-hands zone at $55,000 to $44,000, versus $24,000 to $16,000 in 2022. Simon believes the new bull market should begin aroundmid-2027, with a potential new all-time high target of$169,000. Frequently asked questionsWhy does Simon think $62,500 will hold?Simon gives it roughly 70% odds because of stacked signals at support: a bullish hammer candlestick with above-average volume, a momentum divergence where price made lower lows and momentum higher lows, a bullish MACD cross, RSI near oversold with divergence. And stochastic RSI flags pointing up. What level does Simon need to reclaim before going long?Simon wants a reclaim of the previous support now acting as resistance at $63,500. That level confluences with moving-average resistance near $63,300 and the 1-hour resistance at $63,470. A reclaim and retest would raise the odds of continuation toward his $69,000 target. Where is Simon’s Bitcoin buying zone?Simon names $61,000 to $59,000 as his buying opportunity zone. If support breaks, he waits patiently for price to reach that area, treating it as confirmation the fifth wave completed and the secondary wave is underway. So he can catch the higher-degree third wave with a leveraged long. What is Simon’s macro target and timing for Bitcoin?Simon stays bearish on the weekly and expects a macro bottom near the exchange-of-hands zone at $55,000 to $44,000. He watches capitulation via net unrealized profit and loss. He believes the new bull market should start around mid-2027, with a potential new all-time high at $169,000. What does funding and sentiment tell Simon right now?Funding rates are still positive, so longs stay crowded and a long-squeeze risk remains after a small squeeze off the plus 10% level. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 40, which Simon reads as extreme fear given thin summer liquidity. He watches open interest for trapped longs exiting. MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on theBitcoin video analysis hub. Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.